RAMON CASIPLE, ED MALAY & FUNNY SURVEYS

Everybody’s man

 durian beatPolitical analyst Ramon Casiple has released a survey conducted by his NOVO Trend PH that showed Binay (29.3%) leading in people’s preference for President in the 2016 elections.

  JOKENINGIn the approach to every election, a wave of pollsters surface like mushrooms to conduct surveys for political clients.

DAVAO POLITICSjoker 2joker 2joker 2joker 2

-oOo-

     The man of the hour today is unarguably Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

     The public clamor pushing him to run for President in 2016 has taken a bandwagon effect.

     People are hitching a ride on the Duterte for President mania, all the more giving credibility to public sentiment that the country needs a new leader that only Duterte can fit into.

     From what was initially taken for granted as a big joke, the Pilipinas Duterte 2016 movement has morphed into what could be part of Duterte’s political machinery if he throws to the garbage bin his oft-repeated mantra that he is not running and he decides to take a crack at the presidency.

     What is the scenario ahead for Duterte?

     Vice President Jejomar Binay, the standard bearer of the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), is tormented by corruption charges, sliding survey ratings and the possibility of the presidency slipping away from his hands.

Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, the candidate of the administration Liberal Party, is still the same Mar Roxas that we know, suffering poor public acceptability that his boss, President Benigno Aquino, is losing more of his hair on how to push Mar’s rating up.

Don’t believe the crap that Pinoys of today are the same as the voters of the past who choose the popular no matter how deep they are enmeshed in graft and corruption, have no heart for the poor or are garbage dumped into governance.

  Information technology has armed the public with powerful tools to be able to appreciate or despise what their government and its officials are doing. And who are the deserving to be voted to office.

The internet through websites, blogs and social media, is expected to be, on top of radio and television, a powerful tool in shaping voters’ choice in the coming elections.

The severity of the charges levelled against Binay and how media play it up is expected to be a crucial factor in shaping people’s opinion and eventually their choice for a leader in the coming election.

The public perception that Binay should be thrown away is also expected to rub on UNA, which could, if Binay becomes a heavy burden and an obnoxious candidate sure of losing the votes, drop the Vice President and look for another candidate.

  The same could happen to the Liberal Party which could also ditch Roxas if his rating continues to pitifully remain stagnant at the bottom.

At this point, Roxas is a mile away from Binay in the surveys.

If the leadership of the UNA decides to push Binay as its standard bearer, no matter the mess that he is in, on the principle that birds of the same feather go together (read as thieves love each other), then LP and Roxas are in danger of losing the race.

We are positing the scenario of either the LP dropping Roxas or the UNA ditching Binay because this could be the answer to people’s clamor for a new leader to lead the country.

And that is where Duterte could come in. He could either be the UNA’s or the LP’s man to beat.

           -oOo-

Political analyst Ramon Casiple has released a survey conducted by his NOVO Trend PH that showed Binay (29.3%) leading in people’s preference for President in the 2016 elections.

Binay is ahead of (2) Aquino who said he is not seeking reelection,(3) Senator Grace Poe who said she has no ambition for a higher position, (4) Senator Miriam Santiago whose presidential bid is hobbled by health problems, (5) Senator Chiz Escudero who could not campaign because he would be on a long honeymoon and (6) Senator Bongbong Marcos who is saddled with the ghost of his father’s martial law.

     Tied with the same rating (Spot 7-8-9) are Duterte, Roxas and Senator Peter Allan Cayestano. In No. 10 is former Senator Manny Villar.

     In the approach to every election, a wave of pollsters surface like mushrooms to conduct surveys for political clients.

     Most pamper politicians with high ratings; some do the reverse with low ratings for their client’s rivals. People laugh at results of the surveys most taking them as big jokes that are part of Philippine elections. There are winners and losers in elections, but the pollsters are always sure winners. They laugh their way to the banks after the dust of the battle settles down, whether their clients win or lose.

     These survey outfits compete with such credible institutions like the Social Weather Station and Pulse Asia not in terms of credibility. The fly-by-nights compete with each other in the count for how many gullible politicians there are during elections.

     We are not saying that Novo Trent PH is a run-of-the-mill outfit, Casiple being a noted political analyst.

     malayBut we remember Manila-based publicist Ed Malay whose survey firm The Center was hired by a politician in the 2010 elections, where Sara Duterte clobbered then House Speaker Prospero Nograles in the Davao City mayoral race.

     JOKENINGMalay provided the Dabawenyos with unlimited occasions for non-stop laughter with his surveys showing that Sara  and father Rodrigo who was running in the vice mayoral contest would lose the election.

     At the end of the battle, Sara trounced Nograles with a vote margin of more than 220,000 votes; Ben de Guzman trailed Duterte by more than 300,000 votes.

We pitched camp with the Duterte  during that election as lead media strategist of the Hugpong sa Tawong Lungsod and it was a pleasure to find myself in a toe-to-toes propaganda war with somebody who claims to be the former  chief propagandist of the former President Fidel Ramos. Of course the Tabako denied this.

We heard that Malay silently left Davao City after getting his fat fee from his client even before the votes were counted.

I thought I had not enough of the battle with Malay, and continued to fire weapons-of-mass-destruction at him through e-mails. He threatened us with libel (his client filed four counts of libel against us) , and I said, go ahead!

Malay had since disappeared from view, but I learned it was not because of me but because out of shame he was afraid to face the Manila community of political propagandists-for-hire after what happened to him in Davao City in the 2010 election.

     Back to the results of Casiple’s survey.

     Novo Trend had Binay in the lead, Duterte at Number 7.

     If I see a Malay in Casiple, then believe his figures. But read them in reverse.

     If the results say Binay leads, he would in the end be the tail-ender.

     If Casiple sees Duterte in Number 7, the Davao City Mayor if he decides to run, would be in the lead.

     Malay makes money every election with his outfit being hired by politicians to do surveys that had them losing the fight. And that is because Malay survey results are funny: If Malay says you lose, you win; if he says you win, you lose.

     If you want to get value from the Casiple survey, reverse the results.

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